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Alongside this, what was once perhaps the great hope of an independent Scottish economy — oil and gas — is no longer a safe bet to be relied upon to see the country through any turbulence. Oil prices have been volatile at best in recent years and there is a growing global appetite for renewable energy for ethical and quota-fulfilling purposes. Data, insights and analysis delivered to you View all newsletters By Richard Gardham Sign up to our newsletters Sign up here Where is the Scottish economy now?
That is before any calculations regarding a potential independence are taken into account. Both scenarios in the report predicted that Scottish independence would cost two to three times more than Brexit alone, in terms of income per capita. The report credits higher levels of public spending per capita largely into public services and slightly lower than average levels of tax as the main reasons for this.
The report then advises that should Scotland become independent, tax rises and spending cuts would be required to offset the imbalance.
Richard Murphy, a political economist, chartered accountant and professor at City, University of London, does not believe that the GERS figures are all they seem. Is it really a coincidence that is happens to be named after a football club in Glasgow [Glasgow Rangers are nicknamed the Gers and have a strong unionist following], which is not terribly inclined towards supporters who are in favour of independence?
I very much doubt it. We know what is spent by Scotland — i. Both saw investor appetite more than double between and Despite the lack of data from a pandemic-polluted , foreign investment into Scotland has been looking promising for many years, and this could prove crucial should the country become independent. England is by far the biggest market for Scotland, as it is for Northern Ireland and Wales.
Nobody expected that or anticipated it, but almost overnight, England has come out of the equation. In the lead up to the 6 May election, Andrew Marr interviewed First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and questioned her policies regarding trade and borders. European countries, like countries everywhere, will be trying to recover from the effects of Covid in different ways and at different speeds.
That will mean that EU countries will tend to look inward, and to favour their own projects rather than going for big export drives. The EU: will Scotland opt to be in or out? It is not that the EU necessarily wants to keep Scotland out, I think it is mostly ambivalent about it. Please update your billing information. The subscription details associated with this account need to be updated.
Please update your billing details here to continue enjoying your subscription. Your subscription will end shortly. Philip Rycroft: It would be important an independent Scotland and the remainder UK seek very rapidly to establish a security partnership, both militarily and in terms of counterterrorism and policing. Scotland would be a second land border for the UK and the integrity of the defence of these islands will depend on the two working closely together so a lot would depend on how the independence negotiations were conducted.
If it were acrimonious, there would be a risk of weakening the security of both sides and, as we know from Brexit, there could be a temptation to approach negotiations with a sense of anger. The world has changed so much since the Security Council was put together and the departure of Scotland could be a symbolic key moment of change in the post order which would be an opportunity for advocates of reform of the council to raise the question of whether the UK should remain a permanent member.
So what would be the economic impact on the UK of the loss of Scotland? Philip Rycroft: It would not be significantly weakened. There would of course be some damage from the loss of Scottish economic capabilities, such as natural resources and some iconic products, as well as its capability in the research base and the abilities of the Scottish population. Kirsty Hughes: The devil would be in the detail.
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